EU ambitious 30% emission reduction

The European Parliament has approved its resolution recommending the EU increase their 2020 renewable energy goals from 20% to 30% emissions reduction in relation to 1990 levels.

It is now agreed that raising the reduction target will be economically beneficial to the EU economy, and so this is what the MEPs will recommend to other developed countries next week at the 16th Conference of Parties in Cancun gathers in Cancun, Mexico.

Currently the EU is falling short of the self-imposed 20% reduction goals, non-binding as per the Kyoto Protocol. Despite this they hope to persuade other global leaders of the economic advantages in increasing the reduction goals, and in doing so have all developed economies extend the Kyoto Protocol together.

With deforestation and change of land use causing around 20% of global emissions, the EU also intends on committing an additional €30bn per year to a global fund specifically to help smaller countries focus on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).

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Balancing expectation, one year on from Copenhagen

In our lives there are historical occasions that we remember vividly. What happened that day, where we were and how we felt. One of the most famous was the day JF Kennedy was assassinated, whilst more recently the tragic 11th September 2001 was a day none of us will ever forget. For me another one to add to that list was the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, December 2009; the day we turned our back on Mother Nature.

Nearly one year ago today I stayed up, gripped with hope, watching with baited breath for the world leaders to come together in the name of mankind. As the last light of hope flickered, President Obama came out to announce the agreement that would guide us safely in to the future. Thousands of ideas, hopes and dreams of a new world rushed around in my head. How would it be, how would society work together and function financially, where would our food and water come from?

Millions of hopes were shattered when no more than a token peace-keeping gesture was offered. Something for the press to chew on. Despite decades of research from the world´s finest scientists (independently inside and outside the IPCC for any skeptics still left), nothing on the scale required would be done.

“Yes” we know CO2 ppm is rising hundreds of times faster than ever before. “Yes” we know that last time CO2 ppm was at current levels the world was inhabitable. “Yes” we understand that a rise of 2 °C will send our ecosystems over an irreversible tipping point which will devastate society and “Yes” we realize that we could reach this tipping point by 2040. “Yes” we understand what needs to be done and how much funding needs to be invested in order to prevent this occurring and “Yes” we understand that if these aren´t implemented by 2012 then it may be too late.

“No”, we won´t do anything about it.

desertification

Since then these past 12 months have seen the slow painful asphyxiation of markets that were essential to creating a sustainable future. Where $1 trn should have been carefully distributed to put the future infrastructure in place, instead renewable energy markets have diminished in volume, flagship ventures have essentially shut down, and governments continue with promises and rhetoric for electoral goals whilst delivering far short of the scale needed.

In less than one week the 16th Conference of Parties will commence. At this point there is still no defined successor to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 and there is no agreed proposal for a structure to secure actual commitment in enforcing emission reduction levels. The main polluters, historically the US with over 300bn tonnes CO2 since the industrial revolution, China with over 130bn tonnes CO2 and modern heavyweights such as Australia, India and Brazil, direct policy attention away from their own pollution to smaller less relevant economies. So, do we dare to hope for a defined, measured and proactive proposal to be implemented after COP16?

Well, according to executive secretary for the UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, these talks in Cancun Mexico are not intended to establish a final and ultimate framework for global action. Apparently the conference will be a success if all the parties gain something from it and “balance their expectations so that everyone leaves carrying a positive achievement from their own perspective”. I have balanced my expectation.

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EPA historic health warning to US citizens

Last week the US’ Environmental Protection Agency officially confirmed that global warming from manmade greenhouse gases does have a negative effect on the American citizen’s health and welfare, something that the previous Bush administration refused to accept. They also stated that the pollutants – mainly carbon dioxide from fossil fuels – should be reduced, if not by Congress then by the agency responsible for enforcing air pollution. Existing power plants could now be forced to clean their emissions and also a more fuel-efficient vehicle policy across the US could be enforced, via the EPA’s “US Clean Air Act”. Either way, whether the EPA or Congress control the emissions reduction programs, the American people will feel the economic squeeze but can look forward to a healthier future.

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Copenhagen; survival of the fattest?

A cruel twist of fate may have let the world’s major polluters off again. Unfortunately following the African nations’ walkout earlier in the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, the US and developed nations have been able to divert attention away from the serious issue of their own pollution levels, to the less important issue of controlling growth over developing countries’ emissions. Courtesy of Recharge News a new sculpture in Copenhagen captures the reality of the situation, poor nations carrying the rich, in “The Survival of the Fattest”.

poor nations carrying the rich

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Who is responsible for Global Warming?

Although China recently exceeded the US as the largest annual polluter, the US became the largest global polluter ever by overtaking the UK in 1910 with around 21bn tonnes cumulatively each at the time. US industrial growth has since given the US a cumulative carbon footprint of 334bn tonnes, as estimated in 2006 since 1751. When compared with China at 100bn tonnes, the UK at 72bn tonnes, Japan at 46bn tonnes and Germany at 41bn tonnes, it is easy to see who should take the most responsibility for global warming.

Take in to account that the US carbon footprint has tripled (from 110bn tonnes) in the past 50 years alone, during which time the exact same country has become by far the strongest economy in the World. It takes decades for carbon dioxide to have full effect on our eco-systems and these results of global warming (such as Hurricane Katrina which is recognised as a global warming influenced invent) are only now being noticed more and more in the last decade. Let’s hope that the US takes responsibility for their emissions at the Copenhagen Conference of Parties next week and make a financial commitment proportional to their impact on global warming.

Keep up to date with the COP15 progress as the US and other developed countries hopefully acknowledge their responsibilities to not only the developing World but our own children’s futures, here: http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2942

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US & China’s Action Plan not enough

As the Conference of Parties in Copenhagen approaches next week, 192 nations of the World prepare to meet to solve the global pollution problem and find a workable replacement to the Kyoto Protocol. Being something that the US has still not signed up to, what was desperately needed to add weight to this gathering was an official emissions-reduction target from the United States. However the US and China, the 2 largest polluters in the World responsible for 50% of global pollution, have given us little more than a publicity stunt.

Following an historic meeting in mid November 2009, both President Hu Jintao of the People’s Republic of China and President Obama of the United States of America, outlined their “Action Plan”. In this the US and Chinese administration agreed to invest US$150m (yes million, not billion) over 5 years in “research & development” toward mitigating climate change. Breaking it down, they will be investing $75m each over 5 years, so $15m each, each year. It doesn’t take much to see through these glossy magazine-selling statistics and realise that this is little more than a get-out-of-Copenhagen-free card.

obama-hu

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WORLD LEADING SCIENTISTS WARN OF HIGHER TEMPERATURE INCREASES

Alarming news was released recently following an imperative study by some of the World’s leading scientists. A collective from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), some of whom have been studying climate change for decades, produced startling results from their “Integrated Global Systems Model”.

This model is the most detailed computer simulation ever designed and studies the interaction between the most important aspects of global economic activity and the resulting climate change occurrences. In this recent test the model was programmed to run over 400 computational iterations, each one input with different variables and simulating the resulting climate change over the coming century.

Results were extremely alarming. From the iterations ran, the “best case scenario” for global surface temperature by the year 2100 was an increase of 3.4 degrees Celsius. This is less than a century away, in our grandchildren’s lifetimes. It is widely accepted that a temperature increase of this proportion will drastically change the face of global weather patterns, in a negative manner. Should this occur, and the Worlds leading scientists predict it will, then we can expect far more floods, monsoons, hurricanes, droughts and wild-fires.

From the 400 iterations, the “worst case scenario” calculated that if we do nothing to prevent our current CO2 emissions growth rates that the potential surface temperature could increase by as much as 7 degrees Celsius.

If anyone is equipped enough and wishes to challenge the MIT teams‘ results and theories, then they should step forward urgently. However in the mean time I think we should all be investing everything we have in to saving our environment.

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CAN BIO-FUELS SAVE THE AVIATION INDUSTRY?

An interesting announcement was released last Thursday in Washington DC at an eco-aviation conference, concerning tests that were conducted by Air New Zealand at the very end of 2008 in which they blended natural Jatropha oil 50/50 with standard jet fuel on a Boeing 747 flight.

During a 12-hour flight the bio-fuel blend required 1.4 TONS LESS of this jet-fuel-blend than with standard jet fuel, and more importantly this weight saving and energy efficiency also resulted in a REDUCTION OF 4.5 TONS of CO2 EMISSIONS. Whilst this only represents a 1.2% improvement in fuel burnt, Air New Zealand believe that with fuller Jatropha-blended jet fuels the weight and efficiency savings could potentially result in up to 60% REDUCTION IN GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS compared to existing petroleum-based jet fuels.

Most within the industry all concur that bio-fuels should be integrated in to the aviation fuel regulations, however those drafting the regulations are concerned with bio-fuel inadequate supply. Billy Glover, Head of Environmental Strategy for Boeing, says the problem is not with bio-fuel’s performance, however whether they can grow, refine and supply it fast enough!

For this reason various alternatives to Jatropha are being investigated such as babassu, algae and camelina. With our recent affinity, or addiction, for air-travel, it seems to me we should be making as much as humanly possible.

Jatropha berries

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China wants 40% emission cuts by 2020

China issued a surprisingly pleasant statement last week outlining that developed nations should aim to cut their GHG emissions by 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels.

China is believed to be one of the largest GHG emitters with a thriving industrialised economy powered by coal-fired power stations. China’s coal-fired energy is predicted to continue growing for the next few decades however China is also leading the way in carbon sequestration technology development.

The statement, issued by the National Development and Reform Comission, was intended to lay out China’s opinion prior to the Copenhagen summit this December, which will attempt to take over from the previou Kyoto protocols. They also clearly stated that the new policies resulting from Copenhagen must ensure to include all countries which did not previously ratify the Kyoto Agreement – a direct jibe at the US.

Hopefully the next 6 months will see the power players jostling for position and control, each country hoping to enter the Copenhagen conference seen as the leader in order to direct policies to their benefit. Either way, as long as aggressive targets are agreed upon such as this recent one from China, the results will be positive!

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Obama nails in the SUV coffin

At the current rate of global emission, drastic changes in our habits and lifestyles are needed now. US President Obama seems more than aware of this, and has taken the bold step in forcing through a bill which has been under argument in the US for the past 5 years.

As of 2012, all US car manufacturers will have to improve their fuel efficiency by 5% per annum and reach a target of 39mpg for all cars by 2016. This is estimated by the US administration as the equivalent of removing 177 million cars off America’s road systems and cutting GHG emissions by 900m tCO2 … aka a significant amount! This net 40% efficiency increase is the equivalent of shutting down 194 coal plants, and will almost definitely mean the death of the gas-guzzling SUV’s - which have always been nothing less than an extravagance.

Not only forcing manufacturers to focus design and manufacture on smaller lighter vehicles, and move away from the “bigger is better” attitude, this is also an additional incentive for manufacturers to invest more time and effort in to the alternative fuel markets. Countries like Brazil have already successfully rolled out bio-fuel cars operating at better efficiencies than petrol, and with BMW, GM, Mitsubishi and Nissan all rolling out mass production electric cars, this will hopefully add the necessary impetus for further development in these fields.

Undoubtedly frustrating to many with personal interests in the oil industry, this is a hands down positive move by Barack Obama and just the kind of swift decisive action we need.

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