Balancing expectation, one year on from Copenhagen

In our lives there are historical occasions that we remember vividly. What happened that day, where we were and how we felt. One of the most famous was the day JF Kennedy was assassinated, whilst more recently the tragic 11th September 2001 was a day none of us will ever forget. For me another one to add to that list was the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, December 2009; the day we turned our back on Mother Nature.

Nearly one year ago today I stayed up, gripped with hope, watching with baited breath for the world leaders to come together in the name of mankind. As the last light of hope flickered, President Obama came out to announce the agreement that would guide us safely in to the future. Thousands of ideas, hopes and dreams of a new world rushed around in my head. How would it be, how would society work together and function financially, where would our food and water come from?

Millions of hopes were shattered when no more than a token peace-keeping gesture was offered. Something for the press to chew on. Despite decades of research from the world´s finest scientists (independently inside and outside the IPCC for any skeptics still left), nothing on the scale required would be done.

“Yes” we know CO2 ppm is rising hundreds of times faster than ever before. “Yes” we know that last time CO2 ppm was at current levels the world was inhabitable. “Yes” we understand that a rise of 2 °C will send our ecosystems over an irreversible tipping point which will devastate society and “Yes” we realize that we could reach this tipping point by 2040. “Yes” we understand what needs to be done and how much funding needs to be invested in order to prevent this occurring and “Yes” we understand that if these aren´t implemented by 2012 then it may be too late.

“No”, we won´t do anything about it.

desertification

Since then these past 12 months have seen the slow painful asphyxiation of markets that were essential to creating a sustainable future. Where $1 trn should have been carefully distributed to put the future infrastructure in place, instead renewable energy markets have diminished in volume, flagship ventures have essentially shut down, and governments continue with promises and rhetoric for electoral goals whilst delivering far short of the scale needed.

In less than one week the 16th Conference of Parties will commence. At this point there is still no defined successor to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 and there is no agreed proposal for a structure to secure actual commitment in enforcing emission reduction levels. The main polluters, historically the US with over 300bn tonnes CO2 since the industrial revolution, China with over 130bn tonnes CO2 and modern heavyweights such as Australia, India and Brazil, direct policy attention away from their own pollution to smaller less relevant economies. So, do we dare to hope for a defined, measured and proactive proposal to be implemented after COP16?

Well, according to executive secretary for the UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, these talks in Cancun Mexico are not intended to establish a final and ultimate framework for global action. Apparently the conference will be a success if all the parties gain something from it and “balance their expectations so that everyone leaves carrying a positive achievement from their own perspective”. I have balanced my expectation.

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Copenhagen; survival of the fattest?

A cruel twist of fate may have let the world’s major polluters off again. Unfortunately following the African nations’ walkout earlier in the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, the US and developed nations have been able to divert attention away from the serious issue of their own pollution levels, to the less important issue of controlling growth over developing countries’ emissions. Courtesy of Recharge News a new sculpture in Copenhagen captures the reality of the situation, poor nations carrying the rich, in “The Survival of the Fattest”.

poor nations carrying the rich

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Who is responsible for Global Warming?

Although China recently exceeded the US as the largest annual polluter, the US became the largest global polluter ever by overtaking the UK in 1910 with around 21bn tonnes cumulatively each at the time. US industrial growth has since given the US a cumulative carbon footprint of 334bn tonnes, as estimated in 2006 since 1751. When compared with China at 100bn tonnes, the UK at 72bn tonnes, Japan at 46bn tonnes and Germany at 41bn tonnes, it is easy to see who should take the most responsibility for global warming.

Take in to account that the US carbon footprint has tripled (from 110bn tonnes) in the past 50 years alone, during which time the exact same country has become by far the strongest economy in the World. It takes decades for carbon dioxide to have full effect on our eco-systems and these results of global warming (such as Hurricane Katrina which is recognised as a global warming influenced invent) are only now being noticed more and more in the last decade. Let’s hope that the US takes responsibility for their emissions at the Copenhagen Conference of Parties next week and make a financial commitment proportional to their impact on global warming.

Keep up to date with the COP15 progress as the US and other developed countries hopefully acknowledge their responsibilities to not only the developing World but our own children’s futures, here: http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2942

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US & China’s Action Plan not enough

As the Conference of Parties in Copenhagen approaches next week, 192 nations of the World prepare to meet to solve the global pollution problem and find a workable replacement to the Kyoto Protocol. Being something that the US has still not signed up to, what was desperately needed to add weight to this gathering was an official emissions-reduction target from the United States. However the US and China, the 2 largest polluters in the World responsible for 50% of global pollution, have given us little more than a publicity stunt.

Following an historic meeting in mid November 2009, both President Hu Jintao of the People’s Republic of China and President Obama of the United States of America, outlined their “Action Plan”. In this the US and Chinese administration agreed to invest US$150m (yes million, not billion) over 5 years in “research & development” toward mitigating climate change. Breaking it down, they will be investing $75m each over 5 years, so $15m each, each year. It doesn’t take much to see through these glossy magazine-selling statistics and realise that this is little more than a get-out-of-Copenhagen-free card.

obama-hu

(more…)

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The Rainforest Rush is on!

Although you may not be aware, all the World’s largest corporations are rapidly purchasing as much-endangered rainforest as possible. Why would they do this you ask? To which the simple answer is that they are all highly undervalued and so a very good investment!

All multi-national corporations have enormous global carbon footprints, and only in the coming years will this officially become a financial burden to them as global governments slowly enforce various methods of what is effectively an emissions tax. As the underlying unit of CO2 emissions is the carbon credit, and rainforests are the largest organic owner of carbon credits, the investment decision is an easy one.

With deforestation the root cause of around 20% of global carbon dioxide pollution, “reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation” (REDD) projects should be accepted by the UNFCCC this December in Copenhagen. Once this occurs, implemented REDD projects will have carbon credit values within the Kyoto Treaty’s “Clean Development Mechanism” giving them enormous inherent financial value. Rather than wait for this decision most MNC’s have made their minds up, taken the bull by the horns, and are buying their stock at “pre-launch prices”. The Rainforest Rush is on!

As scientists worldwide perfect their analysis techniques including using satellite technologies, the carbon stock already stored and the sequestration rates of forests are being calculated and rainforests evaluated. It isn’t every forest of course. Only those that are officially endangered by a high risk of deforestation, in countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, will pass the rigorous REDD standards.

amazon rainforest

(more…)

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UN and the WWF highlight accelerating climate change

With the climate change conference in Copenhagen just 6 weeks away, these may unknowingly be the most important time of all our lives. Officials from over 190 countries are charged with the simple task of agreeing how to continue the global fight against climate change, and take over from the Kyoto Protocol. With many of the most fundamental issues still in dispute, we await with baited breath.

As a recent report from the WWF outlined that we have less than 5 years to stop uncontrollable climate change, hopefully by now the climate change scheptics would have been educated long ago. It seems however they remain steadfast in their own self-denial, be it adamant, ignorant or just stupid. With Nasa, UN and independent scientists and scholars all around the World pointing out that drastic and immediate measures need to be taken to prevent a 2˚C temperature rise, hopefully there will be no doubters in Copenhagen! And why the concern over a 2 degree increase? Only that a catastrophic breakdown of ecosystems, leading to mass migration, poverty, hunger and drought, with half of all animals and plants going extinct and a large sea level rise, and massive change in weather patterns. This has been forecast to occur at current rates WITHIN THE NEXT 35 YEARS.

Droughts, acidic oceans and melting glaciers are the most simple signs of accelerated global warming, a United Nations report said recently. Mountain glaciers in Asia are melting at such advanced rates that they could threaten water supplies far sooner than expected, including irrigation and hydropower, affecting up to 25% of the World’s population.

Copenhagen

So with regards to Copenhagen, what is really making this all so difficult? Our complete dependence on fossil fuels and an inability to realise an affordable and scaleable replacement is the main problem. Of course this is not helped by the fact that developed nations like China and the US have such high levels of pollution, and yet dont seem willing to even announce let alone stick to emission reduction targets. A fundamental change in developed society, how we live, how we travel, how we eat, will all need to occur if society is to have any chance of preventing climate change. Our lives will change drastically in the coming years, of that there is no doubt. Are we ready and willing for this? Perhaps also the largest single issue with the Kyoto Protocol was that the developed nations need the less-developed nations to help them reach their emission reduction targets, but dont seem willing to pay for it! With just over 6 weeks to go, these are nervous times indeed.

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China wants 40% emission cuts by 2020

China issued a surprisingly pleasant statement last week outlining that developed nations should aim to cut their GHG emissions by 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels.

China is believed to be one of the largest GHG emitters with a thriving industrialised economy powered by coal-fired power stations. China’s coal-fired energy is predicted to continue growing for the next few decades however China is also leading the way in carbon sequestration technology development.

The statement, issued by the National Development and Reform Comission, was intended to lay out China’s opinion prior to the Copenhagen summit this December, which will attempt to take over from the previou Kyoto protocols. They also clearly stated that the new policies resulting from Copenhagen must ensure to include all countries which did not previously ratify the Kyoto Agreement – a direct jibe at the US.

Hopefully the next 6 months will see the power players jostling for position and control, each country hoping to enter the Copenhagen conference seen as the leader in order to direct policies to their benefit. Either way, as long as aggressive targets are agreed upon such as this recent one from China, the results will be positive!

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RTC2 - Financial evaluation for REDD

As part of our second blog on the Road to Copenhagen, we ask our selves what will it take for REDD (Reducing Emissions through Deforestation and Degradation) to be endorsed at Copenhagen in December? To become a genuine financially-acceptable solution to the global climate change problem, the value placed on preserving the forests needs to increase.

Rhett Butler and colleagues devised forecast models to estimate the equivalent financial return from a 10,000 hectare forest over 30 years according to its use and REDD’s accreditation. Firstly they considered preserving the forest and giving it the current REDD voluntary credit market pricing, which only produced a net present value of up to $994 per hectare. Secondly they considered deforestation and development of a Palm Oil plantation, which generated a far superior NPV of up to $9,630 per hectare. Thirdly they applied the desired model, that of giving REDD credits the compliance market credit value which would result in a far more competitive NPV of up to $6,605 per hectare.

This clearly shows that from a financial motivation perspective, the protection of our forests to prevent irreparable climate change and damage is going to REQUIRE the REDD credits to be given a higher value than they currently are. Fingers crossed for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December this year!

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RTC1 - The Road to Copenhagen

In December of this year, the world’s governments will meet in Copenhagen to discuss the issue of climate change going forward from 2010 and beyond. The Kyoto Protocol will expire next year and with nearly all countries currently signed up (albeit without the most powerful - the USA), the planet sits and waits anxiously to see how climate change policy will be determined over the next decade. One of the most challenging tasks will be how both the developing and developed world are brought into the framework in someway.

Through this special blog on the “Road to Copenhagen” Willow Rivers will offer insights and opinions on the challenges and developments currently facing governments around the World. Kicking off this week with a brief mention on how the economic downturn is having an effect on the efforts of governments and business.

In these difficult times many governments will be reluctant to increase the burden on businesses unless it is absolutely necessary. However, many governments are mitigating the downturn by providing large sums of money investing in renewable energy infrastructure and other such projects. Businesses meanwhile are placing an even greater emphasis on cost control. Many will be looking to increase their energy efficiency, which will naturally reduce costs, and this coupled with reduced global business activity will also ease the demand for energy. However, this is where global leaders are presented with a headache - lower demand for energy translates into lower costs for fossil fuels, making investments into alternative energy less attractive.

This is but one of the many problems leaders will have to try and balance when Copenhagen comes round in December. Look out for further updates on Willow Rivers blog over the coming weeks as we look ahead to Copenhagen 09.

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