UK Solar Feed in Tariff Review Likely To Be Brought Forward

Is now the optimum time to invest in UK solar

The UK solar industry is about to enter its next phase. Since the introduction of the UK feed in tariff back in April 2010 the industry has grown at an exponential rate. The below graph demonstrates this meteoric rise.

The falling price of solar panels coupled with aggressive marketing by solar developers has seen Septembers solar installation exceed all expectation.
This curve will only escalate as we get closer to the feed in tariff review in April 2012. However there could be a substantial drop off should the government decide to bring forward its feed in tariff review as is looking increasingly lively.

The feed in tariff when conceptualised back in 2010 was never meant to be this profitable for developers or rooftop owners alike. A privileged owner of a south facing rooftop in the Devon or Cornwall can expect a return on investment well in excess of 15% pa rising with inflation. This would result in a payback period of some 7 years at very conservative inflation levels.

You may also have seen adverts for free solar installations, large funds and institutional money are poring into the sector trying to secure as much of the feed in tariff as possible before the reduction. There wont be many opportunities like this to secure a double digit, inflation linked, government backed return, and I suspect these contracts will be changing hands for vastly inflated prices in the next 5 years given inflation rates.

So how much will the feed in tariff be cut by? The figure most people are bandying around appears to be 40% this would bring it back to somewhere near to where the original ROI was positioned still make the industry profitable if slightly less appealing.

In the recent blog post by David Owen, Founder and CEO of Solar Media, points to the fact that solar PV is likely to once again become the victim of its own success. The “unless earlier action is deemed necessary” quote used by Solomon-Williams most certainly refers to the amount of PV installed in recent months, pointing towards a significant cut in feed-in tariffs which could take place at another fast-track review.

So we know the review is coming its now a matter of making hay while the sun shines…

We know solar is profitable, and if you have a south facing roof there has never been or probably ever will be a better time to fit a system to your roof. Not to mention the rising cost of energy bills, you may also have aspirations of owning an electric car one day, with a free fuel pump attached to your roof this will prove more than just a small saving given petrol prices.

But not all of us are blessed with a roof let alone a south facing one, I personally live in an apartment next to a very tally shady oak tree. So is there any way I can get a piece of the feed in tariff before its gone without moving house?
Willow Rivers has partnered with one of the South Wests largest Solar developers who have successfully signed up a large number of South facing residential and commercial rooftops for the benefit of private investors into solar.

This is a Win Win for all parties involved, the rooftop owner who is unable to afford the outlay for the systems gets money of their utility bills and a small income form the export tariff and you the investor takes ownership of the generation tariff and the income stream this achieves for the next 25 years.

This equates to a 9.5% first year yield rising with inflation over the next 25 years (average 14% pa base on 4% RPI). By only taking rooftops in the south west we maintain the highest return on investment and optimise our investors returns.

Sadly given the above changes to the FIT this opportunity will not be around for much longer, the drop in feed in tariff will likely bring the yield down to 6% however for those that do get in before the closing date they will own one of the most valuable and fully tradable commodities around for the next 25 year. Given the difficulty in finding inflation beating investments we expect the gold rush to continue for some time yet.

To find out more about owning solar rooftop systems in the South West please visit http://www.willowrivers.com/solar-investment-uk-asset.shtml

Growth of the UK solar sector since the advent of the FIT

Growth of the UK solar sector since the advent of the FIT

Rainforest protection drives 34% growth in voluntary carbon market

The world’s leading voluntary carbon market report, produced by Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg Energy Finance, showed a 34% increase in the voluntary carbon market volume in 2010. Despite the closing of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) in 2010, an increase in the voluntary market overall was driven by continued CSR and specifically by projects aimed at saving endangered rainforest and capturing carbon in trees; a mechanism known as “Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation” (REDD).

In 2010, REDD accounted for almost 30% of all emissions reductions documented, thanks in part to new REDD methodologies published by the “Verified Carbon Standard” (VCS) which provided guidance for almost a third of all credits. As a result there was a surge of activity with REDD projects especially in Brazil and Latin America where there was a doubling of credits from the previous year. Read more at Greenbiz.com here.

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Carbon capture & storage; the world’s most dangerous experiment?

Capturing CO2 and trapping it under ground in order to keep our own atmosphere habitable sounds like a concept out of an Isaac Asimov science fiction novel. However many groups of experts around the world have been working for years on developing carbon capture & storage (CCS) technology as a genuine real solution to save the planet. Certain areas in the US have large underground gaps in the rock where the depositing of CO2 at high pressure has been seriously under consideration from some time now, whilst the Scottish government has been planning to use the emptied north-sea oil fields for the very same activity. But how real is the science behind this, and how secure is it?

With global CO2 levels rising faster than ever, drastically affecting our ecosystems possibly beyond repair, global governments are dedicated to exploring every possible option for improving energy efficiency, developing sustainable renewable energy, reducing CO2 emissions in to the atmosphere and even removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Reducing energy consumption is a crucial exercise for the most immediate effect, whilst minimising CO2 production levels from ongoing energy production is the long-term goal, and CCS seems like the most adventurous concept. Nature itself has many natural devices it has developed to remove CO2 from the ecosystem, such as the world’s oceans and forests. We all know that planting trillions of trees would solve the problem, but implementing this globally is just proving completely impossible, and so now scientists have been working on other ways to remove or absorb the CO2 and keep our atmosphere liveable.

Concepts range from the wilder and wackier such as ”fake trees” to sequester much higher rates of CO2, through to simply trapping the CO2 generated (from standard coal-fired power plants) and rather than releasing in to the atmosphere, simply collecting, treating and hiding away. This has never seemed like a real solution, but more like a stop-gap, or a last-chance attempt by the fossil-fuel power plant owners to justify their continuing activity. Your domestic equivalent would be storing your household rubbish under the bed. The house will look tidy, but after a few days, weeks, months, years, at some point things will start to turn bad.

Storing harmful gases under high pressure under the ground on which we walk is not the most confidence-filling concept, however the scientists promoting the idea have always firmly stated that this was technologically feasible. However now some independent studies from un-biased scientists from Houston University have highlighted that there really are large flaws and look likely to blow a hole in the theory supporting the concept. Hopefully the world’s governments will not be so short-sighted as to continue with such a potentially dangerous activity without the highest level of independent scientific research for this particular experiment. For further details click here.

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Who is responsible for Global Warming?

Although China recently exceeded the US as the largest annual polluter, the US became the largest global polluter ever by overtaking the UK in 1910 with around 21bn tonnes cumulatively each at the time. US industrial growth has since given the US a cumulative carbon footprint of 334bn tonnes, as estimated in 2006 since 1751. When compared with China at 100bn tonnes, the UK at 72bn tonnes, Japan at 46bn tonnes and Germany at 41bn tonnes, it is easy to see who should take the most responsibility for global warming.

Take in to account that the US carbon footprint has tripled (from 110bn tonnes) in the past 50 years alone, during which time the exact same country has become by far the strongest economy in the World. It takes decades for carbon dioxide to have full effect on our eco-systems and these results of global warming (such as Hurricane Katrina which is recognised as a global warming influenced invent) are only now being noticed more and more in the last decade. Let’s hope that the US takes responsibility for their emissions at the Copenhagen Conference of Parties next week and make a financial commitment proportional to their impact on global warming.

Keep up to date with the COP15 progress as the US and other developed countries hopefully acknowledge their responsibilities to not only the developing World but our own children’s futures, here: http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2942

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US & China’s Action Plan not enough

As the Conference of Parties in Copenhagen approaches next week, 192 nations of the World prepare to meet to solve the global pollution problem and find a workable replacement to the Kyoto Protocol. Being something that the US has still not signed up to, what was desperately needed to add weight to this gathering was an official emissions-reduction target from the United States. However the US and China, the 2 largest polluters in the World responsible for 50% of global pollution, have given us little more than a publicity stunt.

Following an historic meeting in mid November 2009, both President Hu Jintao of the People’s Republic of China and President Obama of the United States of America, outlined their “Action Plan”. In this the US and Chinese administration agreed to invest US$150m (yes million, not billion) over 5 years in “research & development” toward mitigating climate change. Breaking it down, they will be investing $75m each over 5 years, so $15m each, each year. It doesn’t take much to see through these glossy magazine-selling statistics and realise that this is little more than a get-out-of-Copenhagen-free card.

obama-hu

(more…)

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UN and the WWF highlight accelerating climate change

With the climate change conference in Copenhagen just 6 weeks away, these may unknowingly be the most important time of all our lives. Officials from over 190 countries are charged with the simple task of agreeing how to continue the global fight against climate change, and take over from the Kyoto Protocol. With many of the most fundamental issues still in dispute, we await with baited breath.

As a recent report from the WWF outlined that we have less than 5 years to stop uncontrollable climate change, hopefully by now the climate change scheptics would have been educated long ago. It seems however they remain steadfast in their own self-denial, be it adamant, ignorant or just stupid. With Nasa, UN and independent scientists and scholars all around the World pointing out that drastic and immediate measures need to be taken to prevent a 2˚C temperature rise, hopefully there will be no doubters in Copenhagen! And why the concern over a 2 degree increase? Only that a catastrophic breakdown of ecosystems, leading to mass migration, poverty, hunger and drought, with half of all animals and plants going extinct and a large sea level rise, and massive change in weather patterns. This has been forecast to occur at current rates WITHIN THE NEXT 35 YEARS.

Droughts, acidic oceans and melting glaciers are the most simple signs of accelerated global warming, a United Nations report said recently. Mountain glaciers in Asia are melting at such advanced rates that they could threaten water supplies far sooner than expected, including irrigation and hydropower, affecting up to 25% of the World’s population.

Copenhagen

So with regards to Copenhagen, what is really making this all so difficult? Our complete dependence on fossil fuels and an inability to realise an affordable and scaleable replacement is the main problem. Of course this is not helped by the fact that developed nations like China and the US have such high levels of pollution, and yet dont seem willing to even announce let alone stick to emission reduction targets. A fundamental change in developed society, how we live, how we travel, how we eat, will all need to occur if society is to have any chance of preventing climate change. Our lives will change drastically in the coming years, of that there is no doubt. Are we ready and willing for this? Perhaps also the largest single issue with the Kyoto Protocol was that the developed nations need the less-developed nations to help them reach their emission reduction targets, but dont seem willing to pay for it! With just over 6 weeks to go, these are nervous times indeed.

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CAN BIO-FUELS SAVE THE AVIATION INDUSTRY?

An interesting announcement was released last Thursday in Washington DC at an eco-aviation conference, concerning tests that were conducted by Air New Zealand at the very end of 2008 in which they blended natural Jatropha oil 50/50 with standard jet fuel on a Boeing 747 flight.

During a 12-hour flight the bio-fuel blend required 1.4 TONS LESS of this jet-fuel-blend than with standard jet fuel, and more importantly this weight saving and energy efficiency also resulted in a REDUCTION OF 4.5 TONS of CO2 EMISSIONS. Whilst this only represents a 1.2% improvement in fuel burnt, Air New Zealand believe that with fuller Jatropha-blended jet fuels the weight and efficiency savings could potentially result in up to 60% REDUCTION IN GREEN HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS compared to existing petroleum-based jet fuels.

Most within the industry all concur that bio-fuels should be integrated in to the aviation fuel regulations, however those drafting the regulations are concerned with bio-fuel inadequate supply. Billy Glover, Head of Environmental Strategy for Boeing, says the problem is not with bio-fuel’s performance, however whether they can grow, refine and supply it fast enough!

For this reason various alternatives to Jatropha are being investigated such as babassu, algae and camelina. With our recent affinity, or addiction, for air-travel, it seems to me we should be making as much as humanly possible.

Jatropha berries

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Electric Sports Car maker valued at half of General Motors!

Popularity for, and the future of, the high-spec electric car industry is now further confirmed as Daimler invest US$50m for just 9% of Tesla Motors Inc. Daimler follow behind several other wise investors such as Musk, founder of PayPal Inc, who invested US$70m in Tesla last year along with the owners of Google Inc.

This latest investment now gives Tesla Motors a market value of around US$550m – nearly half the value of automobile giant General Motors. Considering Tesla have sold less than 500 cars in total, whilst GM sold over 8m vehicles in 2008, this valuation seems unusual. However with GM supposedly facing bankruptcy later this year, these latest valuations show the reality of the changing market sentiment. Supported by Obama’s latest bill, larget monster gas-guzzling trucks are now “out” and super-healthy super-slick environmentally conscious electric cars are most definitely “in”.

Stuttgart-based Daimler are owners of the european popular Smart Car and as such are increasingly interested in the most advanced electric car battery-technology. This investment displays their intent on pursuing this industry and Daimler’s realisation that the high-end electric car market will also be one for capture.

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China wants 40% emission cuts by 2020

China issued a surprisingly pleasant statement last week outlining that developed nations should aim to cut their GHG emissions by 40% by 2020 from 1990 levels.

China is believed to be one of the largest GHG emitters with a thriving industrialised economy powered by coal-fired power stations. China’s coal-fired energy is predicted to continue growing for the next few decades however China is also leading the way in carbon sequestration technology development.

The statement, issued by the National Development and Reform Comission, was intended to lay out China’s opinion prior to the Copenhagen summit this December, which will attempt to take over from the previou Kyoto protocols. They also clearly stated that the new policies resulting from Copenhagen must ensure to include all countries which did not previously ratify the Kyoto Agreement – a direct jibe at the US.

Hopefully the next 6 months will see the power players jostling for position and control, each country hoping to enter the Copenhagen conference seen as the leader in order to direct policies to their benefit. Either way, as long as aggressive targets are agreed upon such as this recent one from China, the results will be positive!

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Obama nails in the SUV coffin

At the current rate of global emission, drastic changes in our habits and lifestyles are needed now. US President Obama seems more than aware of this, and has taken the bold step in forcing through a bill which has been under argument in the US for the past 5 years.

As of 2012, all US car manufacturers will have to improve their fuel efficiency by 5% per annum and reach a target of 39mpg for all cars by 2016. This is estimated by the US administration as the equivalent of removing 177 million cars off America’s road systems and cutting GHG emissions by 900m tCO2 … aka a significant amount! This net 40% efficiency increase is the equivalent of shutting down 194 coal plants, and will almost definitely mean the death of the gas-guzzling SUV’s - which have always been nothing less than an extravagance.

Not only forcing manufacturers to focus design and manufacture on smaller lighter vehicles, and move away from the “bigger is better” attitude, this is also an additional incentive for manufacturers to invest more time and effort in to the alternative fuel markets. Countries like Brazil have already successfully rolled out bio-fuel cars operating at better efficiencies than petrol, and with BMW, GM, Mitsubishi and Nissan all rolling out mass production electric cars, this will hopefully add the necessary impetus for further development in these fields.

Undoubtedly frustrating to many with personal interests in the oil industry, this is a hands down positive move by Barack Obama and just the kind of swift decisive action we need.

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Avoiding the Carbon Crunch

Our planet has entered a new era, an era where the actions of the dominant species now directly control the wellbeing of the planet itself. Luckily, as inherent with any species, we will do whatever possible to protect our own future.

We now know that the burning of fossil fuels produces Carbon Dioxide that directly effects the stability of the planet’s ecosystem. We also now know that deforestation has a double conseqence, burning of trees not only releasing Carbon Dioxide in to the atmosphere but also cutting down trees removes the essential function of sucking Carbon Dioxide out of the atmosphere. We also know that as a species we continue to grow, not only through reproduction but also due to improving healthcare and medical advances we are all living longer, with predictions suggesting we will reach 9bn in 50 years time. We know that the survival of 9bn will depend on certain fundamental needs being fulfilled; clean air, clean water, housing, food and energy, and we know that succeeding in this for 9bn people will be impossible unless we change our habits.

So as the responsible species we seek solutions, and we have the tools to be capable of doing so. Technology is advancing. We are developing better educational systems to outline the problems we all face. We are developing better methods of purifying and recycling water. We are developing more environmentally-friendly ways of constructing homes, communities, offices, factories, and implementing infrastructure to maintain our lives. We are working on global political movements to ensure that all humans live and work towards our common survival. We are developing new environmentally-friendly technologies to deliver the energy we need, harnessing solar, wind and bio-fuel energy, and methods of reducing our power consumption. We are implementing regulations to protect the existing forests of the World, and incentives to plant new forests for the World. 

We now face the greatest challenge, not just fast and smooth system implementation but most importantly how to integrate this in to our financially-driven societies. The rapid creation of the Carbon Markets is crucial and necessary, giving Carbon emissions (or the lack thereof ) a financial value across as many industries as possible. This illustrates our survival instinct not only as a species but at an individual level - the age-old desire to gain via trade. As Carbon Markets develop the greatest concern is how to develop them to perform their fundamental task, ensuring the health & safety of our grandchildren, whilst still giving us the platform to compete amongst one another.

The Carbon Markets are essentially derivates markets, buying and selling “futures” or ‘forwards”, aka the promise to deliver a Carbon Allowance or Credit at a set price at a set date in the future. The danger arises with the necessary inclusion of Carbon Offset Credits, in that these are “earned” for NOT emitting Green House Gases (GHGs). So they are not a genuine product. Issues have already arisen with dangerous GHG chemicals being produced and then destroyed purely to gain the Carbon Credits. Verification and assessment methods for quantifying volumes of GHGs emitted are still not perfected, and many industrial projects going ahead anyway will claim Carbon Credits despite not being intentional for that purpose. Welcome to Subprime Carbon. Alarm bells ringing yet?

Today over a third of Carbon trading is suspected to be Carbon Offset Credits, leaving the door wide open for Subprime Carbon. Traders and speculators make up the majority of the market place, with independent carbon indexes and carbon funds already structured not to help companies achieve their Carbon Caps, but purely for capital gain. Should this really be an open market-place, where speculators can roam free and where hedge-fund tactics will surely selfishly allow the bubble to form with no care for the serious need for a stable market? Securitization of various classes of carbon offset credit projects can easily be done, and is no different from the very same securitization of various mortgage products which led to the eventual downfall of the credit market. These two models will be the same, and it could easily be far more difficult to analyse the variation in carbon-backed securities, which would eventually lead to a collapse of similar magnitude.

Can we afford for this, probably the World’s largest but definitely most important, market to disappear down the same black hole into which our financial markets fell? Serious regulation is needed, united and inter-communicating, not self-regulating such as the debacle of Wall Street over the past decade. Conflicts of interest must be keenly investigated and whilst the development of sophisticated products will be unavoidable in the future, they must also be scrutinised and independently regulated. How corruption, political influence and Wall Street will be kept separate from destroying the environmental integrity of the market is yet to be seen. Emission-reduction target setting must be based on unbiased scientific opinions and emission tracking must also be analysed by effective and independent monitoring systems. Price and market transparency is also essential.

Where we will end up in the future we can not tell, what we do know is that the road to get there is a treacherous one, which we have no choice but to take.

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So money Doesn’t grow on Trees … ?

Or so the old adage goes …. but as we enter a new era, an era where Carbon is the most talked-about and most important commodity in the World, then suddenly this age-old saying now seems a little short-sighted.

With over 20% of the planet’s carbon stored in trees, global governments and organisations now recognise and acknowledge that the protection of the forests is absolutely vital in preventing devastating climate change. Not only do trees continue to capture and store Carbon, when destroyed by fire they release harmful CO2 in to the atmosphere. At last their value is now substantiated financially, with carbon credits in the Voluntary Carbon markets averaging over $6 per tonne of CO2 equivalent and the highest values being placed on reforestation projects at over $8/tCO2e. So not only good for the environment, growing trees is now at long last serious business.

Willow Rivers recommend investing in sustainable rainforests in Costa Rica, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka not only for the carbon credit potential, but also for the actual goods produced. In conjunction with local governments these re-forestation projects grow teak and aquilaria, both forecast for thriving demand as global populations swell. Permits ensure the forests are sustainable aka as soon as harvesting occurs a rest-period is enforced followed by healthy re-forestation. With harvesting periods between 8 and 18 years, investors choose when to harvest portions of the forest so producing “waterfall returns” and mantaining maximum soil health. These types of forest investments can also be structured via SIPPS and are able to give additional tax advantages.

Further than carbon credits and actual sustainable wood harvesting, even further values are being placed on forests by some organisations such as their rainfall production, water storage and weather moderation capabilities. Whilst the relevant values are yet to be justified and proven, there is no doubt that the future is looking good for trees.

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RTC3 - Indonesia first country to go REDD

As our 3rd story on the Road to Copenhagen, we focus again on Indonesia which is now the first government to formally enact regulations governing a UN-backed REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) scheme.

Under the Indonesian regulations, foreign parties can now join with local companies to develop REDD projects, delivering Carbon Credits to the owners. REDD projects are not yet officially accepted within Kyoto’s CDM scheme for emission reduction credits, and can only be traded on the voluntary carbon markets, however it is hoped that in Copenhagen this December that decision will be reversed.

Indonesia is the Worlds 3rd most rain forest covered country, and as such holds an enormous resource in the carbon-sinking trees. Deforestation problems exist within Indonesia due to the popular and lucrative Palm Oil production, the plantations for which are often on cleared rain forest. It is hoped the ratification and acceptance of REDD as a genuine CDM mechanism will stop this deforestation before too late.

“Carbon Conservation” is working with the Aceh government in Indonesia on “Ulu Masen”, the World’s first independently validated REDD project covering 1.87m ha. How the credits generated will be traded, and what the Indonesian government will receive as a levy, are yet to be decided. Most importantly, with 20 REDD projects under development in Indonesia, progress is atleast under way.

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Going a long way, fast

Al Gore may be criticised by many for his approach, however his desire to do whatever necessary to try to save our planet and create a sustainable healthy future for all is undeniable. Here in this short punchy lecture he shows just a few videos which really should make us all take note, listen up and think about what we can do to help the situation we’re facing. We need to go far, quickly!

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RTC1 - The Road to Copenhagen

In December of this year, the world’s governments will meet in Copenhagen to discuss the issue of climate change going forward from 2010 and beyond. The Kyoto Protocol will expire next year and with nearly all countries currently signed up (albeit without the most powerful - the USA), the planet sits and waits anxiously to see how climate change policy will be determined over the next decade. One of the most challenging tasks will be how both the developing and developed world are brought into the framework in someway.

Through this special blog on the “Road to Copenhagen” Willow Rivers will offer insights and opinions on the challenges and developments currently facing governments around the World. Kicking off this week with a brief mention on how the economic downturn is having an effect on the efforts of governments and business.

In these difficult times many governments will be reluctant to increase the burden on businesses unless it is absolutely necessary. However, many governments are mitigating the downturn by providing large sums of money investing in renewable energy infrastructure and other such projects. Businesses meanwhile are placing an even greater emphasis on cost control. Many will be looking to increase their energy efficiency, which will naturally reduce costs, and this coupled with reduced global business activity will also ease the demand for energy. However, this is where global leaders are presented with a headache - lower demand for energy translates into lower costs for fossil fuels, making investments into alternative energy less attractive.

This is but one of the many problems leaders will have to try and balance when Copenhagen comes round in December. Look out for further updates on Willow Rivers blog over the coming weeks as we look ahead to Copenhagen 09.

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