UK Solar Feed in Tariff Review Likely To Be Brought Forward

October 24th, 2011 Posted by Admin in News, Renewable Energy, Solar, Solar Investment, Uncategorized

Is now the optimum time to invest in UK solar

The UK solar industry is about to enter its next phase. Since the introduction of the UK feed in tariff back in April 2010 the industry has grown at an exponential rate. The below graph demonstrates this meteoric rise.

The falling price of solar panels coupled with aggressive marketing by solar developers has seen Septembers solar installation exceed all expectation.
This curve will only escalate as we get closer to the feed in tariff review in April 2012. However there could be a substantial drop off should the government decide to bring forward its feed in tariff review as is looking increasingly lively.

The feed in tariff when conceptualised back in 2010 was never meant to be this profitable for developers or rooftop owners alike. A privileged owner of a south facing rooftop in the Devon or Cornwall can expect a return on investment well in excess of 15% pa rising with inflation. This would result in a payback period of some 7 years at very conservative inflation levels.

You may also have seen adverts for free solar installations, large funds and institutional money are poring into the sector trying to secure as much of the feed in tariff as possible before the reduction. There wont be many opportunities like this to secure a double digit, inflation linked, government backed return, and I suspect these contracts will be changing hands for vastly inflated prices in the next 5 years given inflation rates.

So how much will the feed in tariff be cut by? The figure most people are bandying around appears to be 40% this would bring it back to somewhere near to where the original ROI was positioned still make the industry profitable if slightly less appealing.

In the recent blog post by David Owen, Founder and CEO of Solar Media, points to the fact that solar PV is likely to once again become the victim of its own success. The “unless earlier action is deemed necessary” quote used by Solomon-Williams most certainly refers to the amount of PV installed in recent months, pointing towards a significant cut in feed-in tariffs which could take place at another fast-track review.

So we know the review is coming its now a matter of making hay while the sun shines…

We know solar is profitable, and if you have a south facing roof there has never been or probably ever will be a better time to fit a system to your roof. Not to mention the rising cost of energy bills, you may also have aspirations of owning an electric car one day, with a free fuel pump attached to your roof this will prove more than just a small saving given petrol prices.

But not all of us are blessed with a roof let alone a south facing one, I personally live in an apartment next to a very tally shady oak tree. So is there any way I can get a piece of the feed in tariff before its gone without moving house?
Willow Rivers has partnered with one of the South Wests largest Solar developers who have successfully signed up a large number of South facing residential and commercial rooftops for the benefit of private investors into solar.

This is a Win Win for all parties involved, the rooftop owner who is unable to afford the outlay for the systems gets money of their utility bills and a small income form the export tariff and you the investor takes ownership of the generation tariff and the income stream this achieves for the next 25 years.

This equates to a 9.5% first year yield rising with inflation over the next 25 years (average 14% pa base on 4% RPI). By only taking rooftops in the south west we maintain the highest return on investment and optimise our investors returns.

Sadly given the above changes to the FIT this opportunity will not be around for much longer, the drop in feed in tariff will likely bring the yield down to 6% however for those that do get in before the closing date they will own one of the most valuable and fully tradable commodities around for the next 25 year. Given the difficulty in finding inflation beating investments we expect the gold rush to continue for some time yet.

To find out more about owning solar rooftop systems in the South West please visit http://www.willowrivers.com/solar-investment-uk-asset.shtml

Growth of the UK solar sector since the advent of the FIT

Growth of the UK solar sector since the advent of the FIT

A UK Solar Revolution

June 17th, 2011 Posted by Admin in Solar

The UK Solar Trade Association has recently launched a report claiming that the government has failed to recognize the potential for solar power in the UK. The Alternative Solar Revolution Strategy demands the government to ‘rethink’ solar to deliver a clear strategy and attract more investment to fuel a solar revolution in the UK.

“The Government has got it wrong on solar. We are on the cusp of a global solar revolution, major markets all over the world recognize that solar energy is critical to our future,” says Howard Johns, Chairman of Solar Trade Association. “Germany plans to generate 50% of its day time electricity from solar by 2020 – Germany’s targets are for 52GW of solar energy compared to 2.7GW for the UK by 2020. Community projects have been devastated by government decision making on solar.”

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Rainforest protection drives 34% growth in voluntary carbon market

June 6th, 2011 Posted by Admin in Carbon, Forestry

The world’s leading voluntary carbon market report, produced by Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg Energy Finance, showed a 34% increase in the voluntary carbon market volume in 2010. Despite the closing of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) in 2010, an increase in the voluntary market overall was driven by continued CSR and specifically by projects aimed at saving endangered rainforest and capturing carbon in trees; a mechanism known as “Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation” (REDD).

In 2010, REDD accounted for almost 30% of all emissions reductions documented, thanks in part to new REDD methodologies published by the “Verified Carbon Standard” (VCS) which provided guidance for almost a third of all credits. As a result there was a surge of activity with REDD projects especially in Brazil and Latin America where there was a doubling of credits from the previous year. Read more at Greenbiz.com here.

Solar to reach fossil fuel parity in five years

June 1st, 2011 Posted by Admin in Solar

Breakthroughs in solar technology are likely to drive the cost of solar energy below that produced from fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within five years, according to the global research director at General Electric (GE). Mark M Little, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, predicted that the cost of solar energy will fall to $0.15 per kilowatt hour or lower. “You’re going to have a lot of people that are going to want to have solar at home,” he told the news agency.

It will be difficult to quantify the exact crossover point when solar becomes cheaper than fossil fuels, in part because of the volatility of fossil fuel pricing. However, the Energy Information Administration predicted in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook that the average cost of electricity will increase slightly this year. In January 2011, the average retail price of electricity to residential customers in the US was just under $0.11 per kilowatt hour. Throughout this year, it is expected to average 11.84 cents per kilowatt hour.

Brazil deforestation increases 473%

May 21st, 2011 Posted by Admin in Forestry

New data from the Brazil government shows that there has been a huge increase in deforestation within the Amazon during the past few months. Brazil’s National Space Research Agency (INPE)’s rapid deforestation detection system (DETER) recorded 593 square kilometers of forest was cleared during March and April 2011, an area of rainforest 10 times the size of Manhattan and a 473% increase over 2010 figures for those two months. Over 80% of this occurred in the southern-most state of Mato Grosso where most of the land ends up as cattle pasture or agricultural land.

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Solar Bond: Power Plant Site Visit amidst the Solar Rush

April 6th, 2011 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy, Solar Investment

At the end of March the Willow Rivers team met with our Solar Bond’s solar power plant development team in Sofia, Bulgaria, to visit the power plant site as well as other plants connected or under development by the developer. With photo-voltaic teams from all over the world trying to secure their share of the ’solar gold rush’ in Bulgaria, the visit was a resounding success and only emphasised the unique opportunity that exists in Bulgaria at the moment.

A unique combination of high irradition levels, comparatively low land and labour costs, a generous feed in tariff now fixed at €0.3579/kwh, a practically new market (with only 25mw connected as of Dec 2010) and a government strategy outlining at least 600mw needed to fulfill EU renewable energy requirements, there was a genuine buzz in the air.

team on site of solar power plant

team on site of solar power plant

Having recently agreed a line of finance form a Norwegian Bank (AAA rated) we were also joined by their representative from Norway who is supported by the Norwegian Government´s export finance division. His industry insight and PV financing experience from Spain to France and Germany re-enforced that this is the only place to be right now for solar PV development.

Our first stop after meeting with AAA co-guarantor banks in Sofia was an existing connected park owned and managed by EVN, a large Austrian/Bulgarian utility provider responsible for off-taking the electricity produced by our plant. The secure park housed a combination of standard fixed PV panels with double tracker systems, where the panel is mounted on a motorised platform, which can swivel to harvest optimal radiation levels throughout the days. Our solar bond power plant will have a combination of the two.

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Timber Investment v Other Assets

April 4th, 2011 Posted by Admin in Forestry

Timberland investment has traditionally been the preserve of the private, non-industrial landowner, accounting for a staggering $150 billion globally. However over the last 20 years, institutional investors have discovered this ‘perfect’ asset and now own around $35 billion worth of timberland globally, in a combination of over 100 private pension, foundation, and endowment funds. Of that around $25 billion is invested in the United States, which represents both the world’s largest producer and user of timber. Pension funds such as Calpers, led the way in the 1980s, however it was the big university endowment funds such as Harvard and Yale that saw the true potential and invested heavily in a move to diversify their portfolios globally. Last year the Harvard Endowment Fund invested $500m in forestry and carbon credits in New Zealand.

So what makes timber such a popular asset with institutions and what are the fundamentals driving this perfect asset?

Timber can be classified as a specialised form of long-term bond. A forest that holds mature timber will generate cash each year through the harvest and sale of timber. These harvests can be modeled and forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy over many years. Since timber growth and subsequent harvests are scarcely affected by the movement of financial markets, forest investment can be structured to act and behave in many respects like a long-term bond.

Most view “timberland” as an investment in real estate. While traditional commercial real estate generates income from leasing, timberland derives its primary income from the sale of timber and more recently from carbon credits. However its tax that has been the major driver of forestry investment in the UK; if held for 2 or more years the forestry land can be passed on to family members with no inheritance tax. Timber harvest is also exempt from income tax making this especially popular as a wealth protection asset.

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Spain’s Real Energy Problem

March 1st, 2011 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

Recent murmurings about changing Spanish renewable energy policies have caused serious discomfort within the renewable energy development and finance industry recently. An interesting insight into the Spanish energy industry below explains how the combination of a questionable long-standing energy policy, the slow accumulation of annual electricity cost deficit, EU renewable energy policy requirements and finally the credit crisis has left the Spanish government with few options but to get creative.

The Spanish regulation in question has limited how much electricity rates could rise for homeowners and industry each year over the past decade. As energy costs have surged this has left an annual deficit recently reaching €4bn in one year and finally totaling over €20bn by 2009. This debt was packaged in to securitized debt and sold on the capital markets.

In line with EU renewable energy policy goals, Spain was one of the first to make serious attempts to reach their RE goals. However with the very costly exercise of renewable energy funding, the country´s deficit only worsened. Despite their positive attitude, it seems Spain´s efforts were poorly timed. With the immediate onset of the credit crisis the government was no longer able to find buyers for their securitized debt.

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Italy installs 2GW of solar PV in 2010

February 2nd, 2011 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

Official reports in last week confirmed that Italy installed nearly 2GW (1,850MW) of photovoltaic power plants during 2010 alone. This continues a rapid growth curve in Italian PV power plants over the past few years from just 60MW in 2007 to 340MW in 2008 and 711MW in 2009. Italy´s 2010 tally more than doubles the figure achieved in the United States who did not quite reach 1GW.

Italian utility provider GSE has outlined that an additional 4GW is already pipelined for installation in the coming years. In accordance with Italy´s 2020 renewable energy targets, the total installed PV target is 8GW in total which will produce almost 3% of the country´s electricity demand itself.

U.S PV to double in 2011

December 14th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

According to IDC Energy Insights the U.S total photovoltaic market growth is expected to double in 2011. With roughly 1GW of installations in 2010, as the PV market cost continues to drop this figure is expected to double to around 2GW in 2011. IDC Energy Insights have recently released a study that focuses on the U.S market, including production cost fall-off, government legislation subsidies and incentives, and technological advancements. Whilst the U.S currently lags behind European solar powers Germany and Spain the 2011 growth forecasts indicate that in the near future the global economic powerhouse may well catch up this decade. So much hangs on the legislation, which has ultimately caused the slow-down in Spain´s market.

Americas Largest PV Plant Opens

December 8th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

Last week the largest PV power plant in the U.S. quietly went online in Boulder City, Nevada, about 40 miles southeast of Las Vegas. Sempra Generation’s 48-MW Copper Mountain Solar Facility began construction in January 2010 and on Dec 1st, the company announced that it had finished the project and the facility was now generating electricity.

At its peak, Sempra said, more than 350 construction workers were installing the 775,000 First Solar panels that power the plant on the 380-acre site.

The power from Copper Mountain Solar and Sempra Generation’s adjacent 10-MW El Dorado Solar plant has been sold to Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) under separate 20-year contracts. California utilities are required to procure 20 percent of their energy supply from alternative sources by the end of 2010, increasing to 33 percent by 2020.

The completion of the project eclipsed the 20-MW DeSoto PV plant in Arcadia Florida, which was the previous record holder for the largest U.S. solar power plant.

This moves the U.S. into the “top five” when it comes to large PV power plants; only Canada, Italy, Germany and Spain have bigger plants, according PV Power Plants 2010, which ranks the top 50 facilities.

EUROPES PV MARKET INCREASING

November 30th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

Global solar inverter shipments soared in the third quarter to a record figure of 7.3 GW, according to IMS Research.

Volume surged nearly 50% from 5 GW in the second quarter, largely due to growing demand in Europe and Asia, said the UK-based PV market intelligence firm. While the rise in German demand has slowed, other new European markets also fared well, expanding by more than 300% year-on-year.

Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) accounted for around 80% of inverter shipments in the third quarter of 2010.

“Again we are referring to a record quarter for inverter suppliers with the previous record of 5 GW of shipments in Q2’10 being beaten by almost 50% in Q3’10,” said Tom Haddon, a PV analyst at IMS Research.

EU ambitious 30% emission reduction

November 26th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Carbon

The European Parliament has approved its resolution recommending the EU increase their 2020 renewable energy goals from 20% to 30% emissions reduction in relation to 1990 levels.

It is now agreed that raising the reduction target will be economically beneficial to the EU economy, and so this is what the MEPs will recommend to other developed countries next week at the 16th Conference of Parties in Cancun gathers in Cancun, Mexico.

Currently the EU is falling short of the self-imposed 20% reduction goals, non-binding as per the Kyoto Protocol. Despite this they hope to persuade other global leaders of the economic advantages in increasing the reduction goals, and in doing so have all developed economies extend the Kyoto Protocol together.

With deforestation and change of land use causing around 20% of global emissions, the EU also intends on committing an additional €30bn per year to a global fund specifically to help smaller countries focus on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).

London´s Electric Vehicle Future Tested

November 25th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Electric Vehicles

Following a survey of electric car motorists around the London metropolitan area it was discovered the average distance travelled was less than 32kms per day. These SMART EV under test actually have a listed range of 110km, so if the results of the survey are to be taken in to account then a little improvement in the battery design could make each car last 4 days on a single charge!

Currently the SMART EV recharges to 80% within 4 hours and full capacity within 8 hours, and most of the drivers surveyed actually recharge at home rather than at the public charging stations (something else for the EV designers to consider when designing their charging station network).

Whilst the concept of EV is still not completely fool-proof (where does the electricity come from, coal-fired power stations), these are interesting developments in future urban planning. Altogether 1500 SMART EV´s are being tested around Europe, Canada and the US, and hopefully the results will help car and city design. Finally, not to put off the Top Gear fans these vehicles still manage a top speed of 120kmph.

Balancing expectation, one year on from Copenhagen

November 23rd, 2010 Posted by Admin in Carbon

In our lives there are historical occasions that we remember vividly. What happened that day, where we were and how we felt. One of the most famous was the day JF Kennedy was assassinated, whilst more recently the tragic 11th September 2001 was a day none of us will ever forget. For me another one to add to that list was the 15th Conference of Parties in Copenhagen, December 2009; the day we turned our back on Mother Nature.

Nearly one year ago today I stayed up, gripped with hope, watching with baited breath for the world leaders to come together in the name of mankind. As the last light of hope flickered, President Obama came out to announce the agreement that would guide us safely in to the future. Thousands of ideas, hopes and dreams of a new world rushed around in my head. How would it be, how would society work together and function financially, where would our food and water come from?

Millions of hopes were shattered when no more than a token peace-keeping gesture was offered. Something for the press to chew on. Despite decades of research from the world´s finest scientists (independently inside and outside the IPCC for any skeptics still left), nothing on the scale required would be done.

“Yes” we know CO2 ppm is rising hundreds of times faster than ever before. “Yes” we know that last time CO2 ppm was at current levels the world was inhabitable. “Yes” we understand that a rise of 2 °C will send our ecosystems over an irreversible tipping point which will devastate society and “Yes” we realize that we could reach this tipping point by 2040. “Yes” we understand what needs to be done and how much funding needs to be invested in order to prevent this occurring and “Yes” we understand that if these aren´t implemented by 2012 then it may be too late.

“No”, we won´t do anything about it.

desertification

Since then these past 12 months have seen the slow painful asphyxiation of markets that were essential to creating a sustainable future. Where $1 trn should have been carefully distributed to put the future infrastructure in place, instead renewable energy markets have diminished in volume, flagship ventures have essentially shut down, and governments continue with promises and rhetoric for electoral goals whilst delivering far short of the scale needed.

In less than one week the 16th Conference of Parties will commence. At this point there is still no defined successor to the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012 and there is no agreed proposal for a structure to secure actual commitment in enforcing emission reduction levels. The main polluters, historically the US with over 300bn tonnes CO2 since the industrial revolution, China with over 130bn tonnes CO2 and modern heavyweights such as Australia, India and Brazil, direct policy attention away from their own pollution to smaller less relevant economies. So, do we dare to hope for a defined, measured and proactive proposal to be implemented after COP16?

Well, according to executive secretary for the UNFCCC Christiana Figueres, these talks in Cancun Mexico are not intended to establish a final and ultimate framework for global action. Apparently the conference will be a success if all the parties gain something from it and “balance their expectations so that everyone leaves carrying a positive achievement from their own perspective”. I have balanced my expectation.

A History of Global Warming

July 26th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Renewable Energy

Following the start of the industrial revolution, in 1824 Jean-Baptiste Fourier discovered a global warming “greenhouse” effect and in 1896 Swedish and American scientists independently concluded that CO2 was the likely cause of global warming. Nearly 90 years later in 1987 the WMO and UNEP established a scientific advisory body called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which issued its First Assessment Report in 1990, finding that the planet had warmed by 0.5°C in the past century and would rise further by 0.3°C per decade in the 21st century, accompanied by global mean sea level rises of 6 cm per decade. In 2007 the IPCC released its Fourth Assessment Report, concluding with 90% confidence that human activity is causing climate change and that “Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004.”

In 2008 our planet was estimated to contain 385 ppm (parts per million) of CO2 in its atmosphere, the highest concentration of CO2 for more than 630,000 years. This is widely agreed to be due to human industrial advancement, specifically the production and consumption of power from the burning of fossil fuels that are estimated to have caused around 85% of CO2 emissions. It is known that global temperature increase must be kept within 2°C to prevent an irreversible chain reaction of greenhouse gas release from forests, peat bogs, Siberian permafrost and oceans, which would change the planet’s ecosystems irrevocably. To ensure this temperature rise does not occur concentration of CO2 must not pass 450 ppm, which means reducing CO2 emissions to 60% below 1990 levels before 2030.

Smart Money going in to Growing

June 2nd, 2010 Posted by Admin in Economies

Global populations are growing faster than ever before and due to urbanisation and degradation, the amount of available arable land in the world has actually been diminishing since 2005!! Combined with the effects of climate change, with wilder weather patterns causing floods hurricanes and droughts, these phenomena will have an enormous impact on the global economy in the years to come. With food being one of our staple requirements, global crop demand is destined to surge throughout the century, making agriculture a safe haven for any mid/long-term investor.

UK farmland has increased by 18% in the past 6 months according to property consultants Strutt & Parker and strong growth rates are expected to continue into this decade. As demand increases faster and faster worldwide, expect crop prices to increase driving investor yields and pushing capital appreciation for farmland owners. Also of course watch food prices rise ….

UK Agriculture Farmland

Carbon capture & storage; the world’s most dangerous experiment?

April 26th, 2010 Posted by Admin in Carbon

Capturing CO2 and trapping it under ground in order to keep our own atmosphere habitable sounds like a concept out of an Isaac Asimov science fiction novel. However many groups of experts around the world have been working for years on developing carbon capture & storage (CCS) technology as a genuine real solution to save the planet. Certain areas in the US have large underground gaps in the rock where the depositing of CO2 at high pressure has been seriously under consideration from some time now, whilst the Scottish government has been planning to use the emptied north-sea oil fields for the very same activity. But how real is the science behind this, and how secure is it?

With global CO2 levels rising faster than ever, drastically affecting our ecosystems possibly beyond repair, global governments are dedicated to exploring every possible option for improving energy efficiency, developing sustainable renewable energy, reducing CO2 emissions in to the atmosphere and even removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Reducing energy consumption is a crucial exercise for the most immediate effect, whilst minimising CO2 production levels from ongoing energy production is the long-term goal, and CCS seems like the most adventurous concept. Nature itself has many natural devices it has developed to remove CO2 from the ecosystem, such as the world’s oceans and forests. We all know that planting trillions of trees would solve the problem, but implementing this globally is just proving completely impossible, and so now scientists have been working on other ways to remove or absorb the CO2 and keep our atmosphere liveable.

Concepts range from the wilder and wackier such as ”fake trees” to sequester much higher rates of CO2, through to simply trapping the CO2 generated (from standard coal-fired power plants) and rather than releasing in to the atmosphere, simply collecting, treating and hiding away. This has never seemed like a real solution, but more like a stop-gap, or a last-chance attempt by the fossil-fuel power plant owners to justify their continuing activity. Your domestic equivalent would be storing your household rubbish under the bed. The house will look tidy, but after a few days, weeks, months, years, at some point things will start to turn bad.

Storing harmful gases under high pressure under the ground on which we walk is not the most confidence-filling concept, however the scientists promoting the idea have always firmly stated that this was technologically feasible. However now some independent studies from un-biased scientists from Houston University have highlighted that there really are large flaws and look likely to blow a hole in the theory supporting the concept. Hopefully the world’s governments will not be so short-sighted as to continue with such a potentially dangerous activity without the highest level of independent scientific research for this particular experiment. For further details click here.

UK and Spain battle for Electric Vehicle pole position

April 23rd, 2010 Posted by Admin in Electric Vehicles

Both the UK and Spain government’s are in a low-carbon emission race to see who can implement a stable and complete electric vehicle infrastructure in their major cities first. Whilst the British government have suggested a figure of US$150m to put London on the EV map, the Spanish government have recently announced a budget of €590m for the rollout of their Sustainable Economy Strategy “Action Plan”.

On the 6th April 2010 the Spanish government announced the extension to their current “Movele” plan that outlines the integration of 2000 electric vehicles and 500 charge points as a test bed by 2010. The new announcement outlines the government’s goal to reach 250,000 EVs by 2014 across all major Spanish cities. Not an easy task, to reach this goal will involve infrastructure, general public and private demand, R&D, marketing and legal strategy development. With the “Movele” test strategy having a budget of just €10m, the Government has outlined a total of €590m over the next 5 years to make this implementation successful. For further details visit www.economiasostenible.gob.es/.

Meanwhile in the UK the strategy is slightly different, focussing on delivering 1000 vehicles to Greater London by 2015. Two separate tenders have been proposed, firstly of US$100m for the EVs themselves, with current bidders Smith Vehicles and Nissan vying for the opportunity to start what could become the World’s first major EV network. A second tender of US$45m for the infrastructure, parking and recharging stations, has also been outlined. London is close behind the heels of Spain in their own attempt to slash carbon emissions by 60% by 2025. For further details visit Transport for London http://www.tfl.gov.uk/

Spain announces largest EV network

EPA historic health warning to US citizens

December 16th, 2009 Posted by Admin in Carbon

Last week the US’ Environmental Protection Agency officially confirmed that global warming from manmade greenhouse gases does have a negative effect on the American citizen’s health and welfare, something that the previous Bush administration refused to accept. They also stated that the pollutants – mainly carbon dioxide from fossil fuels – should be reduced, if not by Congress then by the agency responsible for enforcing air pollution. Existing power plants could now be forced to clean their emissions and also a more fuel-efficient vehicle policy across the US could be enforced, via the EPA’s “US Clean Air Act”. Either way, whether the EPA or Congress control the emissions reduction programs, the American people will feel the economic squeeze but can look forward to a healthier future.

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